Amid some significant fluctuations in futures, rates, and the currency, Dow Jones futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures all saw moderate increases in value early Friday. Before the market opens, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) will release their earnings, the March PPI inflation report, and the April inflation forecast.
More than half of Wednesday’s historic gains on the Trump tariff halt were lost as the stock market fell precipitously on Thursday. The U.S. currency fell and long-term Treasury yields kept rising, highlighting the continuous market stress as President Donald Trump attempts to restructure the world economy.
Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta Platforms (META) all forfeited sizable portions of Wednesday’s enormous gains.
Following Wednesday’s significant advances, Palantir Technologies (PLTR), DoorDash (DASH), Netflix (NFLX), Spotify (SPOT), and CrowdStrike (CRWD) all steadily recovered from close to important resistance. Everybody is working on the double-bottom bases.
The stocks of Netflix, Spotify, and DoorDash are all on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist.The stock of DoorDash is listed on the IBD 50. Palantir and Netflix are listed on the IBD Big Cap 20.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Compared to fair value, Dow Jones futures increased by 0.15%. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both increased by 0.2%. Thursday night saw a strong sell-off in futures, with Nasdaq 100 futures briefly falling more than 2%. By morning, they had reversed significantly higher and are currently swinging up and down.
After overnight reaching 4.48%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 4.43%. The 30-year yield surpassed 5% and briefly surpassed 4.5% early on Wednesday, prompting President Trump to respond to “yippy” markets by reducing some tariffs.
The dollar continued its sharp decline over the previous few days, dropping steadily Friday morning.
Emerging markets, rather than the world’s conventional safe haven and reserve currency, are more likely to experience rising yields and a declining currency amid recession concerns.
Gold is still rising.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the March PPI inflation report is due. Due in part to falling hotel and flight prices as Trump tariffs affected demand for travel, the March CPI inflation figure was pleasantly mild. At 10 a.m. ET on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer mood index might be the main focus. It is anticipated that sentiment would continue to decline in April as closely watched inflation forecasts continue to rise.
Keep in mind that trading in the upcoming regular stock market session does not always follow overnight activity in Dow futures and elsewhere.
Trump Tariffs
Even if President Trump temporarily lowered his plans on Wednesday, U.S. tariffs are still extremely high by historical standards due to the 10% baseline levy, sector duties, and 145% duty on Chinese exports. Prices will therefore rise, and there will be other major effects on the economy. Since management is unsure whether tariffs will ultimately be higher or lower overall, or in particular countries or sectors, the 90-day delay is likely to keep company investment and negotiations stalled.
Trump accused Mexico of breaking a 1944 water pact with the United States and threatened to impose fresh tariffs on the country Thursday night.
Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, President Trump stated that he would “love” to reach an agreement with China. “But in the end it is going to be a beautiful thing,” he said, acknowledging that his tariff proposal will have “transition problems.”
On Friday, China increased duties on U.S. goods from 84% to 125%.
Bank Earnings
Early Friday reports were released by JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK).
Wells Fargo and Blackrock had mixed opinions, while JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of New York Mellon had the best.
BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan stock all saw minor increases prior to the opening. The Bank of New York declined.
Given the state of the market, the equities are not performing all that poorly, but the focus of bank results will be on analysis of corporate and consumer lending as well as the economy as a whole.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan, mentioned “considerable turbulence” in the economy in the company’s quarterly statement. President Trump justified his 90-day retreat of increased tariff rates by pointing to Dimon’s TV remarks on Wednesday morning that a recession was highly likely.
Stock Market
Despite closing off lows, the stock market fell Thursday, surrendering much of the massive gains made on Wednesday.
During Thursday’s stock market trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a 2.5% decline. The index of the S&P 500 fell 3.5%. 4.3% was the loss for the Nasdaq composite. The small-cap Russell 2000 saw a 4.3% decline in value.
Day four of a stock market rally effort began on Wednesday and will continue until the major indexes break through Monday’s intraday lows. The new upward trend could be confirmed at any time by a follow-through day. Failure would be a very real possibility.
Crude oil prices in the United States dropped 3.7% to $60.07 per barrel.
Although it increased from Wednesday night’s lows, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped two basis points to 4.39%. Even though there was a second consecutive good debt auction, the 30-year Treasury yield increased six basis points to 4.85%. Over the past four days, the 30-year yield has increased by 46 basis points, the most since March 2020.
Early on Wednesday, the 30-year yield hit 5% and the 10-year yield reached 4.5%.
The largest one-day decline since November 2022 was a 1.5% decline in the WSJ Dollar Index. That continues a steep, erratic drop that began on April 2 when Trump originally proposed the so-called reciprocal tariffs.
ETFs
The Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) experienced a 1.6% decline among growth ETFs. Palantir shares and CrowdStrike were the main holdings in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), which fell 3.35%. There was a 6.9% decline in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH). The most important SMH component is Nvidia stock.
Both the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) had a 5.8% decline. The top holding in all of ARK Invest’s ETFs is Tesla shares, while Cathie Wood also owns a sizable amount of Palantir.
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF saw a 3.2% decline. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) down 2.8%, while the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 6.5%. 2.6% was lost by the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI).
There was a 2.8% decline in the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF). Two significant XLF holdings are JPMorgan and Wells Fargo stock. The ETF also includes Bank of New York Mellon and BlackRock.
Tesla Stock Tumbles, Cheaper Cybertruck Unveiled
Thursday saw a 7.3% decline in Tesla stock, wiping off over one-third of Wednesday’s enormous gains.
A new Long Range version of the Cybertruck, priced at $69,990, was presented by Tesla late on Thursday. Compared to the previous base model, the All-Wheel Drive Cybertruck, it is $10,000 less expensive. Its range is marginally greater, but its acceleration is slower, its towing capacity is lower, and its suspension system is a downgrade, among other things.
Despite decreasing prices in Q4 and being qualified for the $7,500 tax credit early this year, sales of Tesla Cybertrucks have declined over the last two quarters.
Nvidia Stock, Meta
Nvidia lost 5.9% and recovered about one-third of Wednesday’s significant recovery.
According to reports, the Trump administration has retracted its proposal to prohibit Nvidia H20 graphics processor sales to China. The H20 is the highest powerful AI chip that Nvidia is permitted to sell in China, but being less sophisticated than the more recent Blackwell chips.
Meta fell 6.8%, which was less than half of the gain on Wednesday, but it was still below the 200-day moving average.
Tech Leaders Hit Resistance
The stocks of Palantir, DoorDash, Netflix, Spotify, and CrowdStrike are all attempting to rise on the right side of double-bottom bases, but on Thursday they retreated from close to their 50-day lines.
Although Palantir stock held the most of Wednesday’s 19% rise, it gave up 3.7% and retreated from the 50-day line. After rising 13.8% on Wednesday, DoorDash’s shares fell 5.3%.
Netflix’s shares fell merely 2.6% following its 8.6% increase on Wednesday. Next Monday, the streaming behemoth is expected to release its earnings.
After rising 9.8% on Wednesday, Spotify’s stock fell 2.8%.
The stock of CrowdStrike dropped just 2.5 percent after rising 16.3 percent the day before.
What To Do Now
One successful day—even a fantastic day—does not imply that the market has maintained momentum, as the last two sessions have demonstrated. This is particularly true in the current market, when there is a constant possibility of major reversals on news and large daily and intraday movements.
After the massive swings of the previous day, Thursday’s losses were not out of the ordinary, but anyone purchasing a stock close to Wednesday’s close could easily lose 5% or 10%.
Despite the dangers of a failed FTD, investors should still be prepared for a follow-through day because the market rally attempt is still viable.
Prepare your watchlists, please. Although most charts are awful, a few equities, like Palantir, Life Time Group (LTH), Kratos (KTOS), ADMA Biologics (ADMA), Stride (LRN), and ICICI Bank (IBN), may be setting up. Pay attention to relative strength.
